Plowable Snowfall Monday? Here's the latest (12z) run of NOAA's 12 KM NAM model, printing out a stripe of plowable snowfall amounts at the tail-end of a heavy rain event Sunday and Sunday night. Most of the precipitation will fall as rain, certainly in the MSP metro, but some of our models show a rapid changeover to snow Monday morning; a few hours of heavy snow possible before flurries taper early Monday afternoon. Before the changeover as much as 1-1.5" of rain may fall Sunday into late Sunday night or early Monday morning. And ECMWF (European) guidance continues to show precipitation falling as mainly rain into Monday morning, so heavy, accumulating snow isn't a slam-dunk, not yet. Yes, heavy rain is a bit bit...off...for a mid-December weather update. Source: AerisWeather.
The metro area should have picked up a cool foot of snow by December 8. But only 5 inches of snow has fallen - much of that melting on contact early last week.
A light mix is possible over the weekend, with much colder air returning next week.
As odd as it is to see this in print, there's a good chance of a "plowable snow event" tomorrow, with enough blowing and drifting to make for a tricky day of travel. NOAA has issued a Blizzard Warning just west of MSP for tomorrow; details below.
Tuesday's system moves quickly, keeping total amounts down, but a quick 2 to 4 inches of snow may fall during the morning and midday, whipped along by 30 mph winds by afternoon as much colder air comes charging south of the border. I'll be hiding in my weather bunker, watching a stain of dark red spread on my Google traffic maps. Good luck out there.
"Hope is faith holding out its hand in the dark" wrote George Iles.
January is a tough month for most of us. You can't find the mercury in your thermometer, the sun - when visible - is scraping the southern horizon, holiday credit card bills are falling out of your mailbox. And the local weather dweeb is predicting a Conga-line of cold fronts, an IV-drip of meteorological misery.
But sneezes of Siberian air make everything we love about Minnesota possible: from pine trees and sugar sand beaches up north to loons, walleye and fertile fields to forced ingenuity. Surviving the cold; thriving in spite of anything Mother Nature can hurl at us, drives the engine of discovery & innovation. I may sound like a shill for the Chamber of Commerce, but the cold makes us better.
Now please excuse me as I check in for my Sun Country flight to Cabo!
Hold on, models continue to show a thaw by the end of next week. Today's clipper drops a slippery inch of powder, followed by one last subzero slap - for now. 2 more subzero nights, then a slow recovery next week. You'll be amazed and vaguely horrified by just how good freezing feels.
Go ahead and take a bow. You're surviving the coldest week of winter.