"A Significant Snowfall. The latest NAM guidance shows a band of 6-12" setting up across central Minnesota; this run hinting at the northern suburbs picking up the heaviest amounts. I still think it's premature to toss out numbers, but this certainly seems like at least 4-6" for most of the Twin Cities metro; the question is whether it could wind up being twice that amount before the flakes subside Tuesday morning."
- Paul Douglas
It wouldn't be so bad if I got thanked for the good days as often as I get blamed for the bad ones. When in doubt blame the weather guy. People love to remind me when the weather is inconvenient.
Weather modification? Any company dumb enough to try to engineer the weather (or climate) would be composed of one mad scientist and 50 lawyers. Because you can't keep all the people happy all the time.
Forget the calendar, January makes an early appearance next week with highs in the 20s, single digit lows, a wind chill in the oh-zone. And ex-Typhoon Nuri may be responsible.
Scientists at UCAR in Boulder confirm that re-curving typhoons in the Pacific can energize the jet stream, resulting in a higher amplitude pattern and a spike in weather extremes downwind, over the USA. The soggy, windy remains of Nuri spinning off the coast of Alaska will pull bitter air southward into America.
In my experience: air that's 20-30F colder than average is usually preceded by accumulating snow.
No problems today; the atmosphere mild enough for rain showers. No travel problems are expected over the weekend but a storm tracking south of Minnesota may drop a few inches of slushy snow on Monday.
- Paul Douglas
Plowable. A couple of snowfalls, suitable for plowing and shoveling, are shaping up. One arrives today, as much as 2-4" of new snow by Monday morning. A second surge of light snow arrives later in the day Christmas Eve, with another 2-3" by Christmas morning.
Happy Drips For the first time in over 2 weeks the mercury will rise above freezing today. Prepare to be serenaded by the soothing sounds of dripping icicles and gurgling drain-spouts. Happy noises. NOAA reports the first half of December saw the 4th coldest daytime highs and 21st coldest nighttime lows in the Twin Cities since 1873. Nothing like easing into winter. A puff of Pacific air treats us to mid-30s today. More waves of Canadian air slosh south, chilling us back down through the weekend - but not as Nanook as the first week of December. As long as steering winds are howling from the west-northwest Minnesota's weather will be dominated by a family of Alberta Clippers; each one preceded by a brief warm-up, followed by cold winds and flurries. These fickle low pressure swirls moving in from Edmonton move quickly; starved for moisture, unable to tap a deep, rich layer of water vapor in the Gulf of Mexico. One such storm may dump significant snow this weekend from Kansas City to Chicago. On the warm side of the storm highs surge into the 70s on the east coast - 60s into Washington D.C. and Philadelphia. Talk about weather-whiplash! The January Thaw may come early this year.
After hearing that we are about receive another 1"- 3" snowfall, I have some serious concerns. Isn't this relatively the same forecast they gave us right before the Blizzard only a few days ago?
(12/9/12 Forecast: 3" - 5" - actual snow fall 10" - 14")
Should we be planning for another large storm with signs of the slightest temperature change. It appears that we will receive a ''Wintry Mix'' Saturday evening into Sunday morning, producing only a few inches of slush. If the temperature decides to drop ever so slightly before the rain hits, we may have up to 6"+. There are many variables that can change the course, severity, and type of precipitation in an instant. My opinion is to always be prepared for the worst. And remember: If it snows over 2", make sure to clear all vehicles from your driveway, to make way for the plow!
"Paul, why can I still see my puke-colored lawn on December 6?" Proving cause and effect with something as complicated as the atmosphere is always problematic, but my gut? Drought. With a dash of climate change thrown in for good measure.
Some numbers: we should have seen 11.5 inches of snow by now. Last year 7.8 inches of fluff had already fallen. So far in 2012? A whopping 8 tenths of an inch of snow.
Snowy rumors are filling the airwaves for this weekend. Saturday still appears to be the better travel day; a streak of wet snow may drop an inch or two of slushy snow Saturday night and early Sunday; heavier snow possible just outside the metro area.
Significantly colder air arrives by mid-December; highs in the 20s. Another storm late next week may drop a light accumulation; once again the best chance north of the cities.